A. Anecdotal evidence and initial empirical research suggested that groups typically make riskier decisions than do individuals. Thus, the decisions made following discussion in groups would be less cautious than would decisions by the individuals acting alone. This phenomenon was originally labeled the risky shift effect.

B. Sample advising scenarios from the Choice Dilemmas Questionnaire (Adapted from Kogan & Wallach, 1964)

Monica, a competent chess player, is participating in a national chess tournament. In an early match, she draws the top-ranked player in the tournament as her opponent. Monica is ranked much lower. During the match, Monica sees the possibility of a deceptive (but legal) maneuver which might bring her a quick victory. However, should the move fail, Monica would be left in an exposed position with defeat an almost certainty.

Imagine that you are advising Monica. What is the lowest probability that the maneuver would succeed before you would advise Monica to attempt it?

The chances should be ___ in 10 that the the manuever would succeed before I would advise Monica to attempt it.

 

Felicia, recently married, has been informed by her physician that a heart ailment makes it inadvisable for her to have children. Having been an only child, Felicia had always hoped to raise a large family herself. The physician tells her that a delicate operation could be attempted which, if successful, would completely relieve the heart condition. However, its success could not be guaranteed and, in fact, the operation might prove fatal.

Imagine that you are advising Felicia. What is the lowest probability that the operation would prove successful before you would advise Felicia to have the surgery?

The chances should be ___ in 10 that the operation would prove successful before I would advise Felicia to have it.

C. Explanations for the group polarization effect

(1) Social comparison
(2) Persuasive arguments

A. Groupthink is a decision-making process in which maintaining cohesiveness becomes more important than considering the facts objectively.

B. Groupthink tends to occur under the following conditions (Consider the Ferraris & Carveth article on the Columbia explosion, as well as the earlier Challenger disaster.)

(1) Group is highly cohesive.
(2) Group is isolated from contrary opinions.
(3) Group has directive leader who voices a preference for a certain decision.
(4) No standard procedures for considering alternatives in making decisions.
(5) Group is operating under high stress.

C. Resulting symptoms

(1) Invulnerability
(2) Rationalization
(3) Pressure on dissent
(4) Self-censorship of doubts

D. Output

(1) Incomplete survey and evaluation of alternatives
(2) Failure to examine the risks of the favored action

E. Video segment depicting groupthink in Challenger decision

F. Remedies

G. Discussion question: The mass suicide by the Heaven's Gate members seems bizarre to outsiders. What aspects of groupthink may have contributed to this decision?

A. GRIT stands for Graduated and Reciprocated Initiatives in Tension-reduction.

B. Review of components

C. Discussion question

China regards the island of Tiawan as a renegade province of China and has threatened to retake it by force. The U.S. considers Tiawan to be a soverign nation and President Bush recently said that we will not allow that to happen. Both China and the U.S. have missles and other weapons in the area. Tensions have gradually escalated in the past few years; however, both sides are looking for a way to reduce the likelihood of war in the immediate future. As a national security advisor to the President, use GRIT to outline the steps that should be taken to reduce the immediate threat of war, while still protecting Tiawan from attack.